Drawing Conclusion and Predicting Outcomes (Reading)

CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

1.1. The Background of Analysis

Reading is one of the importing skills of understanding language with reading. We can know all information in any media that presented in English. But, reading is not only “reading”. There are a lot of reading skills that we have to know and learn, so we can understand what the text talks about, especially when we have to read some text critically.

When we are asked to read a text critically, we have to learn and analyze the text first. Two of the ways of understanding what’s author’s means is by Drawing Conclusion and predicting outcomes.

1.2. Identification of Problem

1.      What is the Drawing Conclusion and Predicting Outcomes?

2.      How to form drawing conclusion and Predicting Outcomes?

1.3. Purpose of Writing

1.      To know what Drawing Conclusion and Predicting Outcomes is.

2.      To Know How to form Drawing Conclusion and Predicting Outcomes.

CHAPTER II

DISCUSSION

2.1. Drawing Conclusion

            In this chapter we will learn a second, advanced skill : Drawing conclusion, drawing conclusion a closely related skill to making inferences and predicting outcomes, you may think of them as essentially the same thing.

            A conclusion is a decision, opinion, or judgment reached after thoughtful consideration of material you have read. (Elder, 2004, p.187) it must be based on information you have read, but must go beyond what the author states. A conclusion typical comes after all of the information has been considered. You can draw conclusion – logical summaries of characteristics – based on the subject’s current and past behavior. Authors may actually state their own conclusions at the end of a paragraph or section. In fact, the conclusion is often the main idea of the paragraph or even the overall main idea of an entire section, to get your attention, authors may announce the important conclusion with thus, therefore, the point is, in conclusion, as a consequence, consequently, and so forth. When authors state their conclusion, there is nothing for you to infer or conclude, but pay attention to their stated conclusion.

            Careful readers interpret what they read, that is, they try to explain and to understand ideas brought out by their reading. One way to build your skill at interpreting is to try to draw conclusion from what writer tells you.

            Paragraphs or larger readings present information to support a topic, but they do not always state all possible result of the events the writer discuses. Good readers are able to use that information on their own in order to understand what to expect next. In fact, if you must answer question after you read, those question often involve conclusions you must draw on your own.

            You have to think about Drawing Conclusions from parts of individual sentences to larger units like paragraph or whole essays. Sometimes you can predict outcomes of a sentence. That is to say, you can make a reasonably accurate guess as to how the sentence will end. You can use this skill to help you see how to draw conclusions and to predict outcomes in longer selection.

Ø  What does it mean to Draw Conclusions?

Many times the author uses description and gives hints instead of giving away too much information.  This makes the story more exciting and interesting.  The reader needs to "draw a conclusion" about what the author means.  When we draw a conclusion, we take clues the author has given us and use what we already know from our own experiences to help us understand what is happening in the story.

Ø  Why is Drawing Conclusions an important reading strategy?

Drawing Conclusions is very important in understanding what is happening in a story.  For example, many times an author will describe story elements, rather than directly telling you where, when, who, and so forth.  We need to draw conclusions in order to understand the important parts of the story.

Ø  How do we draw conclusions to help us understand what we are reading?

As you read, think about the characters, setting, problem, plot, and solution. Did the author give you any clues to think about?  
Use the story clues and what you already know from your own experiences (prior knowledge) to draw a conclusion about what is happening in the story.

Steps to draw a conclusion:

·         Think about what the author wrote.

·          Think about your own experience or your prior knowledge.

·         Now make a conclusion using what the author wrote, your own experience, and your prior knowledge.

Example Drawing Conclusion :

Which word group from the choices below would you select to complete the following sentence?

·         If you keep reading books with small point in such dim light.

a.       You’ll never pass your exam.

b.      You may not learn the meaning of important words.

c.       You may strain your eyes.

d.      You should play some music on radio.

We can reasonably guess that C is the correct ending of the sentence. In fact, the only sound selection we can make from the choices given here is C. the others are unreasonable.

Read the following examples. In each example a conclusion is drawn. Before you read the example, examine the facts carefully and decide if the conlusion is right or wrong.

Example 1:

·         It is a fact that Monday always follows Sunday, now, since today is Sunday, tomorrow must be Monday.

Comment: the conclusion. “…tomorrow must be Monday.” Is right. The stated fact are accurate and the conclusion is the only one tht can be drawn.

Example 2:

·         If you cannot stay on school nights and there is school tomorrow, you cannot stay out night.

Comment: the conclusion, “…you cannot stay out night,” is right, it is the only conclusion that can be drawn from the stated fact.

Example 3:

·         Whenever it rains, the ground gets wet. Since the ground is wet, I conclude that is raining.

Comment: the conclusion, “….I conclude that is raining.” Is not accurate. After thinking about the stated facts, you can conclude that the ground could be wet for other reasons.

  

2.2.  Predicting Outcomes.

What is a Prediction?

Predictions are thoughts about what you think will happen in a story before you read. A prediction is more than just a guess. It should make sense with the clues you have been given.

Why is making a prediction an important reading strategy?

·         It helps us to focus on what we are reading about.

·         It helps us make connections about what we already know to what we think we know.

·         It gets us excited about what we are reading.

·          

When is it important to predict outcomes?

·         when reading.

·         when you make a decision.

·         when you are watching a movie

How do we make Predictions to help us understand what we are reading?

Before you begin reading preview the title, table of contents, and pictures.
Ask yourself:

·         “Does this remind me of any experiences in my life?”

·         “Does this remind me of other books I have read?”

·         “Have I read or heard something like this before?”

As you are reading, look for clues that will lead you to make a good prediction.

How we use our past experiences to help us predict future outcomes can be seen in the following example :

·         Your neighbor has mowed his lawn every Saturday morning for as long as you can remember. Can you predict what your neighbor will be doing next Saturday?

Comment: You can predict your neighbor will be mowing his lawn. If he has been doing it for as long as you can remember, it is pretty likely he will be doing it this Saturday.

Example Predicting Outcomes :

·         Ronald was running around the classroom with his shoes untied.  One of the nicer boys in the class, Ezekiel, said, “Ronald, your shoe is untied.”  Ronald replied, “Don’t talk to me.”  He did not like Ezekiel.  Ronald then continued running and playing.  As he was running around the bookshelf, he stepped on one of his shoelaces and…

Based on information in the text and what you, what is likely to occur next?

Answer : Ronald is probably going to trip over his shoelace and fall.

I believe this because…

•         He was warned by another character to tie his shoe (based on the text).

•         People commonly trip over untied shoelaces (informed by what I know).

2.3.  EXERCISE

Drawing Conclusion :

·         He had always wanted to serve his country, but this seemed like madness. He was supposed to fight a war in a foreign land, helping to protect people whom he didn't even know. Michael had a strong sense of patriotism, but he was worried about the bombs, death, and carnage that could await him in Iraq. He pondered whether he would ever see his family again.

What conclusions can you draw about how Michael is feeling about going to war?

a.  He feels proud of his country

b.  He is looking forward to the challenge of being in the military

c.  He is afraid of going into battle

d.  He regrets joining the military

Predicting Outcomes :

·         Ben always had trouble getting up in the morning.  His mother usually had to call him at least twice.  He'd already been late for school three times this month.  Mom had already called him once and now headed up to his room and knocked on the door.  When he didn't respond she walked in and found him fast asleep!

¤  Ben will be late for school.

·          

CHAPTER III

CONCLUSION

A conclusion is a decision, opinion, or judgment reached after thoughtful consideration of material you have read. (Elder, 2004, p.187) it must be based on information you have read, but must go beyond what the author states. A conclusion typical comes after all of the information has been considered. You can draw conclusion – logical summaries of characteristics – based on the subject’s current and past behavior.

Predicing Outcomes is the ability to predict what will happen next based on two things : a. Clues given in the picture or story or paragraph, b. What you already know.